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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still